2 · Open the later outage record
Before this run, copy the files from for-later/reveal in the ZIP into cli-practice: OUTCOME_SOURCES.csv, investigation-2021.txt, outages-2021.txt.
Quit the agent, start it again in cli-practice, and paste only this:
Work inside this practice folder. Read the frozen ST1 and ST2 documents and your previous outputs first, then read investigation-2021.txt, outages-2021.txt, and OUTCOME_SOURCES.csv. Leave all inputs and previous outputs untouched. No network, APIs, reads outside the folder, installs, or replies. Python 3 standard library only. Do not use em dashes or en dashes. This is a fresh session: never pass later observations off as knowable on November 5, 2020. Write only reveal.json, reveal.html, and reveal-check.py. Make a self-contained offline HTML evidence room with two dated columns, what the 2020 assessment could support and what the later ERCOT and FERC/NERC reports established. Independently calculate the original scenario reserves from ST1, then compare the extreme thermal forced-outage assumption with ERCOT's later peak total unavailable generation and its component categories. Do not quietly equate a nameplate-capacity outage across all fuels, including existing outages, with forecast thermal forced outages. FERC/NERC also uses expected-capacity units for an average over two days: display it separately and do not call it the hourly peak. Put the observed peak next to the original modeled assumption with a clearly labeled unit and scope mismatch, and explain why their subtraction is illustrative, not a simulated real-time reserve shortfall. Differentiate actual observed peak demand from the later estimate of unconstrained demand, and do not infer an exact blackout-free supply gap or a single cause of every outage. Cite ST1-ST4 with working original URLs for each key claim. No named-person claim without an exact dated primary-record quotation and URL. Include an inline source-linked zero-baseline SVG comparison in MW, all key numbers and limitations as ordinary HTML with scripts off, and a meaningful tap/keyboard accessible disclosure or comparison control that exposes the source evidence behind a consequential comparison. No external dependencies. At 360 pixels wide and wider, the page fits the screen and nothing scrolls sideways, not even inside a table, chart or timeline box; charts scale to the width; no word or amount ever breaks mid-word; narrow tables become stacked cards; each source shows as a short named link with its URL in the link, never printed as page text. Respect reduced motion and include a useful 1280 pixel layout. A visibly different evidence state must result from the interaction; baseline figures remain accessible with JavaScript disabled. reveal.json must carry the independently recomputed old scenarios, separate dated later observations, source IDs/URLs, and explicit incomparable measurements and unknowns. reveal-check.py independently re-reads original and revealed source excerpts without importing model.py, checks JSON and tagged HTML key values, rejects 2021 facts in the as-of column or a nameplate peak masquerading as thermal forced outage, and self-tests three separate in-memory corruptions. Run python3 reveal-check.py and python3 reveal-check.py --self-test; report exit codes.
Open what Claude Code made, full screen
Human check: ST4's preliminary April 27 report shows 52,037 MW peak unavailable nameplate capacity on February 16 around 8 a.m., including 7,650 MW existing, 27,567 weather, 6,130 fuel, 7,457 equipment, 1,459 transmission, 512 miscellaneous, and 1,262 frequency. The other cause categories sum to 44,387 MW at that peak; they are not an identified thermal-only forced-outage peak. ST1 modeled 9,879 MW thermal forced outages in its most extreme printed column. Both 52,037 and 44,387 have different fuel, capacity and outage scope, so the gaps cannot be subtracted as actual operating reserves. ST3 reports an average 34,000 MW unavailable based on expected capacity over February 15-17, not a peak; 69,871 MW observed peak demand and 76,819 MW estimated without load management. Check both dated columns, comparison interaction, and independent checker plus self-test.
When we checked the recording: 2026-10-14 re-record (360px prompt): exit 0, no changed inputs; in a clean rebuilt folder the lesson checks and self-tests all exit 0; findings match the lesson human check and the other tool's run; headless sweep at 360/375/390/800/1024/1280 with all disclosures open and after every control: no element past the edge, no sideways scroller, no printed URLs; controls change visible text; no external requests