ST3. FERC, NERC and Regional Entity Staff Report, The February 2021 Cold Weather Outages in Texas and the South Central United States, November 2021. PDF pages 2, 9, 11-12, 33-35. Original: https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2021-11/Cold%20Weather%20Report_%20November%202021.pdf

[PDF page 2]
The February 2021 Cold Weather Outages in Texas and the South Central United States
November 2021

[PDF page 9, Executive Summary]
To provide perspective on how significant the generating unit outages were, including generation already on planned or unplanned outages, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) averaged 34,000 MW of generation unavailable (based on expected capacity) for over two consecutive days, from 7:00 a.m. February 15 to 1:00 p.m. February 17, equivalent to nearly half of its all-time winter peak electric load of 69,871 MW.

[PDF pages 11-12, Synopsis of Event]
ERCOT ultimately had to shed 20,000 MW of firm load at the worst point of the Event, with SPP and MISO operators shedding a combined total of 3,418 MW of firm load on February 15 and 16, at their worst points.

[PDF page 33, Figure 11: Winter 2020/2021 Peak Load Forecasts and Actual Loads for Event Area; ERCOT column]
2020/2021 90/10 Forecast Winter Peak: 67,208
Feb. 2021 Actual Peak Load/ Date of Occurrence: 69,871 2/14/2021
Feb. 2021 Estimated Peak Load w/o load management/ Date of Occurrence: 76,819 2/15/2021

[PDF pages 33-35, ERCOT Load Forecasts and Projected Reserves]
ERCOT’s most extreme scenario, adjusting for extreme peak demand and extreme outages (but not including low wind conditions), indicated that ERCOT would have only 1,352 MW of operating reserve capacity if those conditions materialized. The variation in these parameters is based on historic ranges of the parameter values or known changes expected in the near-term. The SARA is not intended to predict the likelihood of any of these scenario outcomes.