ST1. ERCOT, Final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region (SARA), Winter 2020/2021. Release Date: Novermber 5, 2020 [spelling in original]. Original PDF pages 1-2. Excerpts below retain the original table row wording and four column order. Source URL: https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2020/11/05/SARA-FinalWinter2020-2021.pdf

[Page 1, SUMMARY]
ERCOT anticipates there will be sufficient installed generating capacity available to serve system-wide forecasted peak demand this winter season, December 2020 ‒ February 2021.
The winter SARA includes a 57,699 MW winter peak demand forecast, which is based on normal weather conditions during peak periods, from 2004 through 2018.
The winter SARA includes a unit outage forecast of 8,616 MW during the winter months, which is based on historical winter outage data compiled since 2017.

[Page 2, Forecasted Capacity and Demand; MW]
Operational Resources (thermal and hydro), MW                                            67,529
Switchable Capacity Total, MW                                                             3,710
Less Switchable Capacity Unavailable to ERCOT, MW                                          -568
Available Mothballed Capacity, MW                                                                0
Capacity from Private Use Networks, MW                                                    3,631
Coastal Wind, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW                                      1,480
Panhandle Wind, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW                                    1,411
Other Wind, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW                                        3,251
Solar Utility-Scale, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW                                 269
Storage, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW                                                  0
RMR Capacity to be under Contract                                                                0
Capacity Pending Retirement, MW                                                                  0
Non-Synchronous Ties, Capacity Contribution, MW                                             838
Planned Thermal Resources with Signed IA, Air Permits and Water Rights, MW                       0
Planned Coastal Wind with Signed IA, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW                 371
Planned Panhandle Wind with Signed IA, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW                    0
Planned Other Wind with Signed IA, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW                   557
Planned Solar Utility-Scale, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW                             35
Planned Storage, Peak Average Capacity Contribution, MW                                          0
[a] Total Resources, MW                                                                          82,513
[b] Peak Demand, MW                                                                              57,699
[c] Reserve Capacity [a - b], MW                                                                 24,814

[Page 2, Range of Potential Risks; four columns in printed order: Forecasted Season Peak Load | Extreme Peak Load / Typical Generation Outages During Extreme Peak Load | Forecasted Season Peak Load / Extreme Low Wind Output | Extreme Peak Load / Extreme Generation Outages During Extreme Peak Load. A dash denotes no adjustment. Units MW.]
Seasonal Load Adjustment                                                                    -                  9,509                 -                 9,509
Typical Maintenance Outages, Thermal                                                      4,074                4,074               4,074               4,074
Typical Forced Outages, Thermal                                                           4,542                5,339               4,542               5,339
95th Percentile Forced Outages, Thermal                                                     -                    -                   -                 4,540
Low Wind Output Adjustment                                                                  -                    -                 5,279                  -
[d] Total Uses of Reserve Capacity                                                                8,616               18,922              13,895              23,462
[e] Capacity Available for Operating Reserves, Normal Operating Conditions (c-d), MW             16,198                5,892              10,919               1,352

[Page 2, notes to these rows]
Based on the 2011 winter and a revised economic growth forecast prepared in April 2020; the extreme winter forecast is 67,208 MW
Based on the historical average of planned outages for December through February weekdays, hours ending 7 am - 10 am, for the last three winter seasons (2017/18, 2018/19, and 2019/20)
Based on historical average of forced outages for December through February weekdays, hours ending 7 am - 10 am, for the last three winter seasons (2017/18, 2018/19, and 2019/20); both Extreme Load scenarios include typical fuel limitation-related derates/outages at units in north Texas during extreme peak load hours
Based on the 95th percentile historical average of forced outages for December through February weekdays, hours ending 7 am - 10 am, for the last three winter seasons (2017/18, 2018/19, and 2019/20) plus additional fuel limitation-related derates/outages at units in north Texas during the peak load hours for the January 17, 2018 cold weather event
Based on the 5th percentile of hourly wind capacity factors (output as a percentage of installed capacity) associated with the 100 highest Net Load hours (Load minus wind output) for the 2015/16-2019/20 winter Peak Load seasons; this low wind output level is 1,791 MW
