T4 | Joint Committee on Taxation | December 18, 2017 | JCX-67-17, PDF page 8, NET TOTAL row. https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/2f1d880c-ca26-429d-9044-63ac084d07cd/x-67-17-5053.pdf ESTIMATED BUDGET EFFECTS OF THE CONFERENCE AGREEMENT FOR H.R. 1, THE "TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT" Fiscal Years 2018 - 2027 [Billions of Dollars] Provision | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2018-22 | 2018-27 NET TOTAL | -135.7 | -280.0 | -258.8 | -220.8 | -178.3 | -137.9 | -120.1 | -114.6 | -40.6 | 32.9 | -1,074.0 | -1,456.0 NOTE: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. The date of enactment is generally assumed to be December 22, 2017. T5 | Joint Committee on Taxation | December 22, 2017 | JCX-69-17, PDF pages 3 and 7 (intro and budgetary effects). https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/53ad7658-20ac-4c10-b4d0-2759305432aa/x-69-17-5055.pdf The Joint Committee staff estimates that this proposal would increase the average level of output (as measured by Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) by about 0.7 percent relative to average level of output in the present law baseline over the 10-year budget window. That increase in output would increase revenues, relative to the conventional estimate of a loss of $1,456 billion over that period by about $451 billion. This budget effect would be partially offset by an increase in interest payments on the Federal debt of about $66 billion over the budget period. The growth generated by the proposal is projected to reduce the revenue loss from the proposal by about $451 billion over the 2018-2027 budget period. At the same time, an increase in interest rates generated by the increase in Federal debt is expected to increase the cost of Federal debt service by about $66 billion over the budget window. Overall, the budgetary effects of changes in economic growth are projected to reduce the deficit by $385 billion during the budget window. Details of the estimate appear on Table 1, following. T5 | JCX-69-17 PDF page 9, table 1, 2018-27 totals [Billions of Dollars] Conventional estimate | -1,456.0 Additional Effects Resulting from Macroeconomic Analysis | 384.6 NET TOTAL | -1071.4 NOTE: Details may not add to totals due to rounding T6 | Congressional Budget Office | December 15, 2017 | CBO signed letter PDF pages 1-2 and table 1 page 4. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53415 ; original PDF accessible via https://www.novoco.com/documents101518/hr_1_conference_agreement_121517.pdf According to CBO’s and JCT’s estimates, enacting H.R. 1 would reduce revenues by about $1,649 billion and decrease outlays by about $194 billion over the period from 2018 to 2027, leading to an increase in the deficit of $1,455 billion over the next 10 years. Those estimates do not incorporate the effects of macroeconomic feedback. CBO and JCT estimate that enacting the legislation would reduce revenues by about $1,649 billion and decrease outlays by $194 billion over the 2018-2027 period. As a result, the bill is estimated to increase the deficit by $1,455 billion over the next 10 years, excluding effects from macroeconomic feedback (see Table 1). A portion of the changes in revenues would be from Social Security payroll taxes, which are off-budget. Excluding the estimated $27 billion increase in off-budget revenues over the next 10 years, the legislation would increase on-budget deficits by about $1,482 billion over the period from 2018 to 2027 (see Tables 1 and 2).