Conference agreement call
Not supported: the final bill's scores show a deficit increase even with growth feedback
JCT scores the conference agreement at -$1,456.0 billion T4 over 2018-2027, a net budget effect against current law. Its macroeconomic analysis finds about +$451 billion T5 of growth-related revenue, partly offset by -$66 billion T5 of higher interest cost on federal debt. The published net feedback is +$384.6 billion T5, leaving -$1,071.4 billion T5.
Feedback recovers 26.4% T5 T4 of the conventional cost; 73.6% T5 T4 remains. CBO and JCT's conventional estimate points the same way: revenues -$1,649 billion T6, outlays -$194 billion T6, deficit change +$1,455 billion T6 (positive means a larger deficit).
- JCT conventional, table total-$1,456.0 billion T4
- JCT growth revenue+$451 billion T5
- JCT added interest cost-$66 billion T5
- JCT with feedback, table total-$1,071.4 billion T5
Confidence: high on direction, since both scorekeepers and JCT's dynamic estimate show a deficit increase. Sizes are model estimates against a projected baseline, not observed results.
Treasury scenario, assessed separately
Conditional, receipts only, and about the Senate Finance plan, not the conference bill
Treasury's December 11 memo scores the Senate Finance plan at -$1.5 trillion T1 on a current-law static basis. It then assumes annual real growth of 2.9% T1 instead of 2.2% T1, a rise of 0.7 percentage points T1 in the growth rate, worth +$1.8 trillion T1 of receipts. The result is +$300 billion T1 in receipts over the 10-year window.
At 0.35 percentage points T1, Treasury puts the gain at +$1 trillion T1; by packet arithmetic that leaves -$0.5 trillion T1, a net Treasury itself does not print.
What the scenario depends on
- A growth path of 2.5% T1 in 2018, 2.8% T1 in 2019 and 3.0% T1 thereafter, from the Administration's FY2018 budget.
- Crediting the tax bill with growth Treasury partly assigns to regulatory reform, infrastructure and welfare reform. The memo gives roughly half to corporate taxation and does not size the tax-only share.
- Receipts only: no interest cost and no outlay effects. In JCT's conference analysis interest cost alone was -$66 billion T5.
- No annual figures: the memo says gains are "primarily collected in the last five years" and does not name the fiscal years.
- The current-policy figure of -$1 trillion T1 uses a different baseline and is left out of the comparison.
Taken on its own terms, the high-growth case lifts receipts above the static loss. It is an executive scenario for a different bill, so it cannot stand in for a score of the conference agreement.
What Secretary Mnuchin said, and when
No source in this packet quotes the Secretary using the words of the claim under test. His dated words, in order:
- April 27, 2017: CBS interview, earlier blueprint
The interviewer put the cost at $7 trillion T7, a figure with no source in the packet, and asked:
So when will you tell us how you will pay for it?
Norah O'Donnell (interviewer), April 27, 2017. Spoken; transcript published by the interviewer. T7 In regards to the pay for, I don't know how people can estimate the cost since we don't haven't released all the details, but this is going to be paid for by economic growth and by a reduction of many, many deductions in special interest.
Steven T. Mnuchin, April 27, 2017. Spoken; transcript published by the interviewer. T7 Well, we feel confident that we can get to at least 3 percent economic growth on a sustained basis.
Steven T. Mnuchin, April 27, 2017. Spoken; transcript published by the interviewer. T7 And as we go through the details of the plan we'll be comfortable that we can pay for most of the plan.
Steven T. Mnuchin, April 27, 2017. Spoken; transcript published by the interviewer. T7 Two financing sources, growth and fewer deductions, and the qualifier "most of the plan." The plan's details were not yet released.
- November 2, 2017: remarks as prepared
An additional one percent of growth adds over two trillion dollar of revenues to pay down our debt.
Steven T. Mnuchin, November 2, 2017. Remarks as prepared for delivery; not proof of exact spoken words. T3 A rule of thumb with no bill, baseline or period. It concerns a full point of added growth, larger than either growth assumption below.
- December 11, 2017: Treasury release and memo
We are pleased to release an analysis demonstrating the revenue impact of the Administration’s economic agenda. The Administration has been focused on tax reform and broader economic policies to stimulate growth, which will generate significant long-term revenue for the government,
Steven T. Mnuchin, December 11, 2017. Written statement in an official release. T2 His quoted words claim "significant long-term revenue," not a full offset. The release's own text, not the quotation, carries the +$1.8 trillion T2 figure, which summarizes the memo on the Senate Finance plan.
- December 15 to 22, 2017: legislative scores of the conference agreement
CBO's cost estimate (December 15), JCT's conventional table (December 18) and JCT's macroeconomic analysis (December 22) all score the final conference agreement.
Executive scenario versus legislative score
These are different models of different bills. Reading one as a check on the other is the central error to avoid.
Treasury OTP scenario
JCT and CBO scores
Ten-year totals on one dollar scale, kept in separate panels
All bars are billions of dollars summed over ten years, measured from zero. Solid bars score the conference agreement. Hatched bars with diamond markers are Treasury's hypothetical receipts for the Senate Finance plan; they share the dollar scale, not the model or the bill.
- Conference agreement score
- Treasury hypothetical, Senate plan
Reconciling the published numbers
JCT conventional table, JCX-67-17
Annual net budget effects, fiscal years 2018 to 2027 (negative means a larger deficit):
- 2018-$135.7 billion T4
- 2019-$280.0 billion T4
- 2020-$258.8 billion T4
- 2021-$220.8 billion T4
- 2022-$178.3 billion T4
- 2023-$137.9 billion T4
- 2024-$120.1 billion T4
- 2025-$114.6 billion T4
- 2026-$40.6 billion T4
- 2027+$32.9 billion T4
Sum of rounded annual cells, 2018-2027: -$1,453.9 billion T4
Published table total, 2018-2027: -$1,456.0 billion T4
Gap from rounding: -$2.1 billion T4
2018-2022: cells sum to -$1,073.6 billion T4; table shows -$1,074.0 billion T4.
The table notes that details may not add due to rounding. This analysis cites the published total and keeps the cell sum only as a check.
JCT macroeconomic analysis, JCX-69-17
Growth revenue +$451 billion T5 plus interest -$66 billion T5 equals +$385 billion T5; the text says +$385 billion T5.
Table 1 net macro effect: +$384.6 billion T5
Conventional -$1,456.0 billion T5 plus +$384.6 billion T5 equals -$1,071.4 billion T5; Table 1 shows -$1,071.4 billion T5.
From rounded text components: -$1,071.0 billion T4 T5, which differs from the table by rounding only.
Growth revenue alone equals 31.0% T5 T4 of the conventional cost.
CBO cost estimate, December 15
Revenues -$1,649 billion T6 and outlays -$194 billion T6 give a deficit change of +$1,455 billion T6; the letter states +$1,455 billion T6.
Excluding off-budget revenue of +$27 billion T6: on-budget deficits change by +$1,482 billion T6; the letter states +$1,482 billion T6.
JCT's table total less CBO's deficit, same sign: -$1.0 billion T4 T6, a rounding difference.
JCT's net total already nets outlay effects, so it is not a pure receipts loss. The revenue-only reduction in the CBO letter exceeds JCT's net total by $193.0 billion T6 T4, close to the outlay cut.
Treasury memo, December 11
Growth rates: 2.9% T1 less 2.2% T1 equals 0.7 percentage points T1.
Static -$1.5 trillion T1 plus growth +$1.8 trillion T1 equals +$0.3 trillion T1; the memo states +$300 billion T1.
Static plus JCT's Senate growth figure of +$408 billion T1 equals -$1,092 billion T1; the memo rounds this to -$1 trillion T1.
Test a hypothetical growth feedback
This control replaces only JCT's growth-related revenue with a hypothetical amount. JCT's conventional table total and its interest estimate stay fixed, and the recorded JCT result below never changes. Holding interest fixed is a simplification: in any real model, different growth would change interest cost too.
Fixed: conventional -$1,456.0 billion T4; interest -$66 billion T5. Recorded JCT result, unchanged: -$1,071.4 billion T5.
Preset sources:
- JCT recorded, conference: +$451 billion T5
- Treasury 0.35 point figure, Senate plan: +$1,000 billion T1
- Break-even with JCT interest: $1,522.0 billion T4 T5
- Treasury 0.7 point figure, Senate plan: +$1,800 billion T1
Treasury presets are receipts estimates for the Senate Finance plan, used here only as a stress test, not as conference estimates.
Hypothetical remaining 10-year deficit increase At JCT's own feedback, the conference bill does not pay for itself; growth revenue would need to reach $1,522 billion with interest held at $66 billion.
Result inputs: conventional table total T4, interest and recorded feedback T5. The output is arithmetic, not a JCT estimate.
Distinctions the numbers depend on
GDP level versus growth rate
Treasury's figure is a rise of 0.7 percentage points T1 in the annual real growth rate. JCT's figure is a 0.7% T5 higher average level of GDP over the decade. The digits match; the amount of growth does not. The chart plots dollars only.
Score against a baseline versus observed receipts
Each dollar figure is a change against a projected baseline. Treasury's +$300 billion T1 means receipts above its own projection, not a rise in total receipts. No fiscal 2018 to 2027 receipts are observed as of December 22, 2017.
Current law versus current policy
This analysis compares current-law figures. Treasury's current-policy static score of -$1 trillion T1 assumes expiring provisions are renewed; its current-law score is -$1.5 trillion T1.
Net budget effect versus revenue-only change
JCT's -$1,456.0 billion T4 includes outlay effects. CBO's revenue-only change is -$1,649 billion T6.
What is not in the packet
- Any Treasury score of the final conference agreement; the memo models the Senate Finance plan and only says House results would not be 'materially different'.
- Treasury's year-by-year figures, model description, interest cost and outlay effects; the memo gives 10-year totals only and does not name the fiscal years.
- How much of Treasury's 0.7 point growth rise comes from the tax plan alone versus regulatory, infrastructure and welfare policy.
- The JCT document behind the $408 billion Senate Finance growth figure; the packet has it only secondhand through Treasury.
- JCT's annual macroeconomic detail and the growth-rate path behind its 0.7% GDP level effect; only 2018-2027 totals are extracted.
- A CBO macroeconomic estimate of the conference agreement; the CBO letter excludes feedback.
- A current-policy score of the conference agreement that assumes expiring provisions are extended.
- The baseline wording of the JCX-67-17 and CBO extracts; only JCX-69-17 names the present law baseline.
- The exact spoken words of the November 2 remarks, which are as prepared for delivery.
- A source for the interviewer's $7 trillion blueprint cost figure.
- Any quotation in which the Secretary says the plan would fully finance itself.
- Observed receipts, GDP or deficits for fiscal 2018-2027; none exist as of December 22, 2017.
Numeric source ledger
Every number used above, as stated in the source or as labeled arithmetic. Brown marks the Senate Finance scenario; teal marks the conference agreement.
| ID | Date | Measure | Value | Unit and sign | Bill and baseline | Source words |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Treasury static score, current law | -$1.5 trillion T1 | Trillions of dollars. Change in receipts against the stated baseline: negative means lower receipts. Not observed total receipts. | Senate Finance plan; current law | “with a score of approximately -$1.5 trillion on a current law basis” |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Treasury static score, current policy (not used for comparison) | -$1 trillion T1 | Trillions of dollars. Change in receipts against the stated baseline: negative means lower receipts. Not observed total receipts. | Senate Finance plan; current policy | “approximately -$1 trillion on a current policy basis” |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | JCT growth revenue for the Senate Finance plan, as reported by Treasury | +$408 billion T1 | Billions of dollars. Change in receipts against the stated baseline: negative means lower receipts. Not observed total receipts. | Senate Finance plan; current law | “They estimated $408 billion of additional tax revenue” |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Treasury's sum of static score and JCT growth revenue, Senate Finance plan | -$1 trillion T1 | Trillions of dollars. Change in receipts against the stated baseline: negative means lower receipts. Not observed total receipts. | Senate Finance plan; current law | “under JCT’s assumptions of approximately -$1 trillion on a current law basis” |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Administration real GDP growth rate assumed by Treasury | 2.9% T1 | Percent per year, real GDP growth rate. Unsigned level or rate as stated in the source. | Senate Finance plan; Administration FY2018 budget path | “approximately a 2.9% real GDP growth rate over 10 years” |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Baseline real GDP growth rate in Treasury's comparison | 2.2% T1 | Percent per year, real GDP growth rate. Unsigned level or rate as stated in the source. | Senate Finance plan; previous projections | “baseline of previous projections of 2.2% GDP growth” |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Increase in the annual real growth rate, Treasury scenario | 0.7 percentage points T1 | Percentage points of annual real GDP growth. Unsigned level or rate as stated in the source. | Senate Finance plan; 2.2% growth baseline | “half of this 0.7% increase in growth” |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Assumed real GDP growth, 2018 | 2.5% T1 | Percent per year, real GDP growth rate. Unsigned level or rate as stated in the source. | Senate Finance plan; Administration FY2018 budget path | “growth is 2.5% in 2018” |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Assumed real GDP growth, 2019 | 2.8% T1 | Percent per year, real GDP growth rate. Unsigned level or rate as stated in the source. | Senate Finance plan; Administration FY2018 budget path | “2.8% in 2019” |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Assumed real GDP growth, 2020 onward | 3.0% T1 | Percent per year, real GDP growth rate. Unsigned level or rate as stated in the source. | Senate Finance plan; Administration FY2018 budget path | “and 3.0% thereafter” |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Treasury growth revenue at 0.7 points faster annual growth | +$1.8 trillion T1 | Trillions of dollars. Change in receipts against the stated baseline: negative means lower receipts. Not observed total receipts. | Senate Finance plan; 2.2% growth baseline | “increase in tax revenues during the 10-year period of approximately $1.8 trillion” |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Treasury net receipts change at 0.7 points faster annual growth | +$300 billion T1 | Billions of dollars. Change in receipts against the stated baseline: negative means lower receipts. Not observed total receipts. | Senate Finance plan; current law plus 2.2% growth baseline | “total receipts over the 10-year window increasing by $300 billion” |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Lower-growth sensitivity: added annual growth rate | 0.35 percentage points T1 | Percentage points of annual real GDP growth. Unsigned level or rate as stated in the source. | Senate Finance plan; 2.2% growth baseline | “at approximately 0.35% of incremental annual GDP growth” |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Treasury growth revenue at 0.35 points faster annual growth | +$1 trillion T1 | Trillions of dollars. Change in receipts against the stated baseline: negative means lower receipts. Not observed total receipts. | Senate Finance plan; 2.2% growth baseline | “approximately $1 trillion of incremental revenue” |
| T2 | 2017-12-11 | Release text: growth revenue (summarizes the T1 memo) | +$1.8 trillion T2 | Trillions of dollars. Change in receipts against the stated baseline: negative means lower receipts. Not observed total receipts. | Senate Finance plan; 2.2% growth baseline | “$1.8 trillion of additional revenue would be generated over 10 years” |
| T3 | 2017-11-02 | Prepared remarks: revenue from one point of added growth (lower bound, 'over') | $2 trillion T3 | Trillions of dollars. Unsigned amount as stated; meaning given in the label. | No bill named; not stated | “An additional one percent of growth adds over two trillion dollar of revenues” |
| T4 | 2017-12-18 | JCT conventional net budget effect, fiscal year 2018 | -$135.7 billion T4 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; present law (conventional, no macroeconomic feedback) | NET TOTAL row, column 2018: -135.7 |
| T4 | 2017-12-18 | JCT conventional net budget effect, fiscal year 2019 | -$280.0 billion T4 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; present law (conventional, no macroeconomic feedback) | NET TOTAL row, column 2019: -280.0 |
| T4 | 2017-12-18 | JCT conventional net budget effect, fiscal year 2020 | -$258.8 billion T4 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; present law (conventional, no macroeconomic feedback) | NET TOTAL row, column 2020: -258.8 |
| T4 | 2017-12-18 | JCT conventional net budget effect, fiscal year 2021 | -$220.8 billion T4 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; present law (conventional, no macroeconomic feedback) | NET TOTAL row, column 2021: -220.8 |
| T4 | 2017-12-18 | JCT conventional net budget effect, fiscal year 2022 | -$178.3 billion T4 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; present law (conventional, no macroeconomic feedback) | NET TOTAL row, column 2022: -178.3 |
| T4 | 2017-12-18 | JCT conventional net budget effect, fiscal year 2023 | -$137.9 billion T4 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; present law (conventional, no macroeconomic feedback) | NET TOTAL row, column 2023: -137.9 |
| T4 | 2017-12-18 | JCT conventional net budget effect, fiscal year 2024 | -$120.1 billion T4 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; present law (conventional, no macroeconomic feedback) | NET TOTAL row, column 2024: -120.1 |
| T4 | 2017-12-18 | JCT conventional net budget effect, fiscal year 2025 | -$114.6 billion T4 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; present law (conventional, no macroeconomic feedback) | NET TOTAL row, column 2025: -114.6 |
| T4 | 2017-12-18 | JCT conventional net budget effect, fiscal year 2026 | -$40.6 billion T4 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; present law (conventional, no macroeconomic feedback) | NET TOTAL row, column 2026: -40.6 |
| T4 | 2017-12-18 | JCT conventional net budget effect, fiscal year 2027 | +$32.9 billion T4 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; present law (conventional, no macroeconomic feedback) | NET TOTAL row, column 2027: 32.9 |
| T4 | 2017-12-18 | JCT conventional net total, published table, 2018-2022 | -$1,074.0 billion T4 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; present law (conventional, no macroeconomic feedback) | NET TOTAL row, column 2018-22: -1,074.0 |
| T4 | 2017-12-18 | JCT conventional net total, published table, 2018-2027 | -$1,456.0 billion T4 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; present law (conventional, no macroeconomic feedback) | NET TOTAL row, column 2018-27: -1,456.0 |
| T5 | 2017-12-22 | JCT: average increase in the level of GDP over 10 years | 0.7% T5 | Percent of the level of GDP, 10-year average. Unsigned level or rate as stated in the source. | Conference agreement; present law baseline | “increase the average level of output (as measured by Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) by about 0.7 percent” |
| T5 | 2017-12-22 | JCT conventional loss as restated in the macro text (rounded) | -$1,456 billion T5 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; present law | “conventional estimate of a loss of $1,456 billion” |
| T5 | 2017-12-22 | JCT growth-related revenue feedback | +$451 billion T5 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; conventional estimate | “increase revenues, relative to the conventional estimate of a loss of $1,456 billion over that period by about $451 billion” |
| T5 | 2017-12-22 | JCT added interest cost on federal debt | -$66 billion T5 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; conventional estimate | “increase in interest payments on the Federal debt of about $66 billion” |
| T5 | 2017-12-22 | JCT net macroeconomic effect, text (rounded) | +$385 billion T5 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; conventional estimate | “projected to reduce the deficit by $385 billion” |
| T5 | 2017-12-22 | JCT conventional estimate, macro Table 1 | -$1,456.0 billion T5 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; present law | “Conventional estimate | -1,456.0” |
| T5 | 2017-12-22 | JCT net macroeconomic effect, Table 1 | +$384.6 billion T5 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; conventional estimate | “Additional Effects Resulting from Macroeconomic Analysis | 384.6” |
| T5 | 2017-12-22 | JCT net budget effect with macroeconomic feedback, Table 1 | -$1,071.4 billion T5 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; present law, with macroeconomic feedback | “NET TOTAL | -1071.4” |
| T6 | 2017-12-15 | CBO and JCT: change in revenues | -$1,649 billion T6 | Billions of dollars. Change in receipts against the stated baseline: negative means lower receipts. Not observed total receipts. | Conference agreement; CBO baseline (not restated in extract) | “would reduce revenues by about $1,649 billion” |
| T6 | 2017-12-15 | CBO and JCT: change in outlays | -$194 billion T6 | Billions of dollars. Change in outlays: negative means lower spending, which reduces the deficit. | Conference agreement; CBO baseline (not restated in extract) | “decrease outlays by about $194 billion” |
| T6 | 2017-12-15 | CBO and JCT: change in the deficit | +$1,455 billion T6 | Billions of dollars. Change in the deficit: positive means a larger deficit (CBO letter convention). | Conference agreement; CBO baseline (not restated in extract) | “leading to an increase in the deficit of $1,455 billion” |
| T6 | 2017-12-15 | CBO: off-budget (Social Security payroll) revenue change | +$27 billion T6 | Billions of dollars. Change in receipts against the stated baseline: negative means lower receipts. Not observed total receipts. | Conference agreement; CBO baseline (not restated in extract) | “Excluding the estimated $27 billion increase in off-budget revenues” |
| T6 | 2017-12-15 | CBO: change in on-budget deficits | +$1,482 billion T6 | Billions of dollars. Change in the deficit: positive means a larger deficit (CBO letter convention). | Conference agreement; CBO baseline (not restated in extract) | “increase on-budget deficits by about $1,482 billion” |
| T7 | 2017-04-27 | Interviewer's cost figure for the April blueprint (unsourced) | $7 trillion T7 | Trillions of dollars. Unsigned amount as stated; meaning given in the label. | April blueprint; not stated | “Estimated to cost the American taxpayer $7 trillion over a decade” |
| T7 | 2017-04-27 | Mnuchin: growth rate he felt confident of (April blueprint) | 3% T7 | Percent per year, real GDP growth rate. Unsigned level or rate as stated in the source. | April blueprint; not stated | “at least 3 percent economic growth on a sustained basis” |
| T7 | 2017-04-27 | Mnuchin: federal debt at start of prior administration | $10 trillion T7 | Trillions of dollars. Unsigned amount as stated; meaning given in the label. | April blueprint; not stated | “debt has grown from 10 to 20 trillion dollars” |
| T7 | 2017-04-27 | Mnuchin: federal debt at end of prior administration | $20 trillion T7 | Trillions of dollars. Unsigned amount as stated; meaning given in the label. | April blueprint; not stated | “debt has grown from 10 to 20 trillion dollars” |
| T4 | 2017-12-18 | Arithmetic sum of rounded annual cells, 2018-2022 | -$1,073.6 billion T4 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; as inputs | Arithmetic: sum of annual cells 2018 to 2022 |
| T4 | 2017-12-18 | Arithmetic sum of rounded annual cells, 2018-2027 | -$1,453.9 billion T4 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; as inputs | Arithmetic: sum of annual cells 2018 to 2027 |
| T4 | 2017-12-18 | Rounding gap, table total less cell sum, 2018-2027 | -$2.1 billion T4 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; as inputs | Arithmetic: table total minus sum of annual cells |
| T5 | 2017-12-22 | Growth revenue net of interest, rounded text figures | +$385 billion T5 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; as inputs | Arithmetic: growth revenue plus interest budget effect (451 + (-66)) |
| T5 | 2017-12-22 | Conventional plus macro effect, table figures | -$1,071.4 billion T5 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; as inputs | Arithmetic: conventional table total plus macro table effect |
| T4 T5 | 2017-12-22 | Remaining deficit effect from rounded text components | -$1,071.0 billion T4 T5 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; as inputs | Arithmetic: table total plus rounded growth revenue plus rounded interest effect |
| T5 T4 | 2017-12-22 | Growth revenue as a share of the conventional cost | 31.0% T5 T4 | Percent of a stated total. Unsigned level or rate as stated in the source. | Conference agreement; as inputs | Arithmetic: 451 / 1,456.0 |
| T5 T4 | 2017-12-22 | Net feedback after interest as a share of the conventional cost | 26.4% T5 T4 | Percent of a stated total. Unsigned level or rate as stated in the source. | Conference agreement; as inputs | Arithmetic: 384.6 / 1,456.0 |
| T5 T4 | 2017-12-22 | Share of the conventional cost still unpaid after feedback | 73.6% T5 T4 | Percent of a stated total. Unsigned level or rate as stated in the source. | Conference agreement; as inputs | Arithmetic: 1,071.4 / 1,456.0 |
| T4 T5 | 2017-12-22 | Growth revenue needed to fully offset, interest held at JCT's $66 billion (hypothetical arithmetic) | $1,522.0 billion T4 T5 | Billions of dollars. Unsigned amount as stated; meaning given in the label. | Conference agreement; as inputs | Arithmetic: 1,456.0 + 66, interest held at JCT's figure |
| T6 | 2017-12-15 | Deficit change rebuilt from revenues and outlays | +$1,455 billion T6 | Billions of dollars. Change in the deficit: positive means a larger deficit (CBO letter convention). | Conference agreement; as inputs | Arithmetic: revenue loss 1,649 less outlay cut 194 |
| T6 | 2017-12-15 | On-budget deficit change rebuilt | +$1,482 billion T6 | Billions of dollars. Change in the deficit: positive means a larger deficit (CBO letter convention). | Conference agreement; as inputs | Arithmetic: 1,455 + 27 off-budget revenue excluded |
| T6 | 2017-12-15 | CBO deficit change in JCT budget-balance sign | -$1,455 billion T6 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; as inputs | Arithmetic: sign flip of the 1,455 deficit increase |
| T4 T6 | 2017-12-18 | JCT table total less CBO deficit (same sign) | -$1.0 billion T4 T6 | Billions of dollars. Effect on the federal budget balance: negative means a larger deficit (JCT table convention). | Conference agreement; as inputs | Arithmetic: -1,456.0 + 1,455 |
| T6 T4 | 2017-12-18 | Revenue-only loss in excess of JCT net total (about the outlay offset) | $193.0 billion T6 T4 | Billions of dollars. Unsigned amount as stated; meaning given in the label. | Conference agreement; as inputs | Arithmetic: 1,649 - 1,456.0 |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Growth-rate increment rebuilt | 0.7 percentage points T1 | Percentage points of annual real GDP growth. Unsigned level or rate as stated in the source. | Senate Finance plan; as inputs | Arithmetic: 2.9 - 2.2 |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | High-growth net receipts rebuilt | +$0.3 trillion T1 | Trillions of dollars. Change in receipts against the stated baseline: negative means lower receipts. Not observed total receipts. | Senate Finance plan; as inputs | Arithmetic: -1.5 + 1.8 |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Lower-growth net receipts (packet arithmetic; Treasury does not print this net) | -$0.5 trillion T1 | Trillions of dollars. Change in receipts against the stated baseline: negative means lower receipts. Not observed total receipts. | Senate Finance plan; as inputs | Arithmetic: -1.5 + 1.0 |
| T1 | 2017-12-11 | Static score plus JCT Senate growth revenue, exact arithmetic | -$1,092 billion T1 | Billions of dollars. Change in receipts against the stated baseline: negative means lower receipts. Not observed total receipts. | Senate Finance plan; as inputs | Arithmetic: -1,500 + 408 |
Sources and access notes
U.S. Treasury Office of Tax Policy, December 11, 2017. Official link above. Access note: Original Treasury link redirects; original one-page PDF archived at p2016.org
T2 Treasury Releases Analysis of Revenue Estimates Associated with Administration Economic Policies
U.S. Department of the Treasury, December 11, 2017. Official link above. Access note: Official dated release including direct Secretary quotation
U.S. Department of the Treasury, November 2, 2017. Official link above. Access note: As prepared for delivery; not evidence of exact spoken wording
T4 Estimated Budget Effects of the Conference Agreement for H.R. 1 JCX-67-17
Joint Committee on Taxation, December 18, 2017. Official link above. Access note: Table net total on PDF page 8
T5 Macroeconomic Analysis of the Conference Agreement for H.R. 1 JCX-69-17
Joint Committee on Taxation, December 22, 2017. Official link above. Access note: Introduction and budgetary effects PDF pages 3 and 7 to 9
T6 Cost Estimate for the Conference Agreement on H.R. 1
Congressional Budget Office, December 15, 2017. Official link above. Access note: Original cbo.gov protected by HTTP 403; original signed CBO PDF retrieved via novoco.com
T7 Steven Mnuchin defends President Trump's tax-cut plan
CBS This Morning, April 27, 2017. Official link above. Access note: Firsthand interview transcript; earlier blueprint not final conference bill; quote both paid for and most qualifications