Feasibility evidence room, frozen at December 22, 2022
25 Water Street: the bid cannot be priced yet
Finding as of December 22, 2022: a project-specific purchase bid for 25 Water Street cannot yet be priced. The only public record is a financing announcement. It gives the building size, a cited floor plate, a planned home count and a loan amount. It gives no construction cost, no income, no loan terms and no entitlement.
Historical teaching case built only from what an analyst could see on December 22, 2022. Not investment or legal advice.
What the record says
Every figure below comes from one source, W1, the Newmark release of December 22, 2022, and keeps its own status. None of them is a test fit, a dwelling permit, a purchase price or a construction budget.
| Figure | Value | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition and redevelopment loan arranged | $535.8 million | Announced financing. Not the purchase price, total cost, construction budget, net sale proceeds or a bid. | W1, Dec 22, 2022 |
| Height | 22 stories | Published building description. | W1, Dec 22, 2022 |
| Office gross area | 1.1 million sq ft | Published, rounded office area. Not residential net area or a test fit. | W1, Dec 22, 2022 |
| Representative floor plate | 40,330 sq ft per floor | Cited size of the floor plates. Not measured floor by floor and not multiplied by the story count here. | W1, Dec 22, 2022 |
| Slab-to-slab height | 12 ft 4 in | Published dimension. | W1, Dec 22, 2022 |
| Announced homes | approximately 1,300 homes | Issuer plan. Not a dwelling permit, test fit or certified occupancy limit. | W1, Dec 22, 2022 |
| Announced dwelling range | studios to four bedrooms | Issuer plan. Dwelling mix and minimum unit size unknown. | W1, Dec 22, 2022 |
| Year built | 1969 | Published. | W1, Dec 22, 2022 |
| Light and air | uninterrupted on three sides | Qualitative issuer claim. No measured window schedule. | W1, Dec 22, 2022 |
One floor, one unit of area
- Whole outline: 1 floor plate = 40,330 sq ft, the cited size of the floor plates. Used as one unit of area.
- Unknown window and core region. Window exposure, usable depth and core size are not measured. Shape and size are placeholders, not an estimate.
Not to scale: the release gives no plate dimensions. Source: W1, Dec 22, 2022
Separate future plan
Approximately 1,300 homes, studios to four bedrooms, are announced for after redevelopment.
This is the issuer's plan. It is not a dwelling permit, not an architect's test fit and not a certified occupancy limit. It is kept apart and is never used as a denominator on this page.
Source: W1, Dec 22, 2022
Conditional one-floor scenario HYPOTHETICAL
Assumptions in view: 60% usable of one 40,330 sq ft floor, 750 sq ft average unit. Both hypothetical.
Hypothetical conditional area on one example floor: sq ft
Hypothetical units that would fit that area on this one floor:
Rule: 40,330 sq ft x 60% = 24,198 sq ft, then divided by 750 sq ft and rounded down. Not a count of permitted apartments, not a whole-building test fit.
Zero baseline: 0 sq ft at the left line.
Break-even purchase ceiling: unsolved
Pmax = N + L - (H + S + C + K + O)
Pmax = not computed. Decision status: blocked. Every term on the right side is missing as of December 22, 2022. No blank is filled with zero, a market guess, an illustrative price or a later number.
- N
- Net sale proceeds at exit: sale value minus sale costs. Missing: exit assumption, income, taxes and operating expenses.
- L
- Net lease-up cash before exit. Missing: resident income and rent mix, operating expenses, taxes and time to occupancy.
- H
- Hard construction cost. Missing: no bid or contract, no measured plans.
- S
- Soft cost: design, permits, legal and fees. Missing.
- C
- Contingency. Missing.
- K
- Carrying cost during works: interest, taxes, insurance. Missing: lender interest terms, draw dates, loan split and time to occupancy.
- O
- Other project costs, including any required return. Missing.
The $535.8 million loan is financing for acquisition and redevelopment. It is not N, not Pmax, not a purchase price and not a bid.
Why the decision is blocked
- No signed or bid hard cost, soft cost or contingency.
- No income inputs: resident income and rent mix, taxes, operating expenses.
- No loan terms: rate, fees, draw dates, acquisition and redevelopment split.
- No entitlement inputs: test fit, code and zoning review, dwelling permit.
- No exit assumption and no time to occupancy.
Unanswered inputs
| Input | Would come from | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Acquisition consideration actually paid | Signed purchase agreement or recorded deed | Missing |
| Loan split between acquisition and redevelopment | Executed loan agreement | Missing |
| Lender interest terms | Term sheet with index, spread or coupon, fees and reserves | Missing |
| Construction draw dates | Lender-approved draw schedule | Missing |
| Hard cost (H) | Signed contractor bid or guaranteed maximum price | Missing |
| Soft cost (S) | Design, permit, legal and financing fee budget | Missing |
| Contingency (C) | Budget with a stated contingency | Missing |
| Carrying cost (K) | Interest, taxes and insurance during works, from loan terms and schedule | Missing |
| Other project costs (O) | Closing costs, required return and any other line items | Missing |
| Full resident income and rent mix | Unit-by-unit rent roll and any income or affordability terms | Missing |
| Real estate taxes | Assessment and tax treatment in force on December 22, 2022 | Missing |
| Operating expenses | Residential operating budget | Missing |
| Time to occupancy | Construction schedule and certificate of occupancy path | Missing |
| Lease-up cash (L) | Lease-up schedule net of operating costs | Missing |
| Exit assumption | Exit timing, value basis and sale costs | Missing |
| Net sale proceeds (N) | Follows only from the exit assumption, income and sale costs | Missing |
| Entitlement: code and zoning review, dwelling permit | Filed plans, code review and permit record | Missing |
| Measured plans and window schedule | Architect's measured drawings for every floor | Missing |
| Unit test fit, dwelling mix, minimum unit size | Architect's test fit checked against code | Missing |
Unknown until measured plans and code review arrive
- Daylight and window exposure
- Usable depth from windows
- Cores (location and size)
- Dwelling mix
- Minimum unit size
Next five diligence requests
- Measured architectural plans for every floor, with a facade window schedule, core outlines and window-to-core depths, so daylight-served area is measured instead of assumed.
- An architect's unit test fit with dwelling mix and minimum unit sizes, plus a code and zoning review and the dwelling permit filing status as of December 22, 2022.
- A signed or bid construction budget: hard cost, soft cost and contingency, with the construction draw dates and the expected time to occupancy.
- The executed loan terms: how the $535.8 million loan splits between acquisition and redevelopment, rate or spread and index, fees, reserves, draw conditions and maturity.
- An income and exit underwrite: full resident income and rent mix by unit type, real estate taxes under rules in force on December 22, 2022, operating expenses, lease-up timing and the exit assumption with sale costs.
Timeline known on the record date
- 1969: building completed (W1).
- December 22, 2022: financing announced for acquisition and redevelopment (W1). Record frozen here.
- Next, dates unknown: measured plans, code review, bids, signed loan terms and income underwrite.
Sources and scope
- W1: Newmark financing release on PR Newswire, published and read as of December 22, 2022. Local excerpt: newmark-2022.txt; index: SOURCES.csv.
- Excluded: anything published after December 22, 2022, including later laws, zoning relief, tax incentives, sale prices or outcomes.
- Any later reveal is kept in separate files and does not change this baseline.