BLOCKED Evidence as of December 22, 2022
Finding: the project specific bid for 25 Water Street cannot yet be priced.
The only public record is a financing announcement (PR Newswire release, source W1). It gives building dimensions, an approximate home plan and a loan amount. It gives no purchase price, construction budget, rents, loan terms or measured plans. The break even purchase price is therefore left unsolved and the decision status is blocked.
Historical teaching case. Not investment or legal advice.
What was published
Every figure below comes from one source dated December 22, 2022. Status shows what kind of claim it is.
| Item | Figure | Unit | Source | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition and redevelopment loan arranged | $535.8 million | USD | W1 | December 22, 2022 | announced financing |
| Published office gross area | 1.1 million sq ft | square feet | W1 | December 22, 2022 | published claim |
| Stories | 22 | stories | W1 | December 22, 2022 | published claim |
| Cited floor plate size | 40,330 sq ft | square feet per floor | W1 | December 22, 2022 | published claim |
| Slab to slab height | 12 ft 4 in | inches | W1 | December 22, 2022 | published claim |
| Announced approximate homes | about 1,300 | homes (approximate) | W1 | December 22, 2022 | issuer plan approximate |
| Year built | 1969 | calendar year | W1 | December 22, 2022 | published claim |
The loan is not a price
The $535.8 million loan covers acquisition and redevelopment together. It is not the purchase price, not total cost, not net sale proceeds and not a bid.
Announced plan, kept separate
The issuer announced about 1,300 homes, ranging from studios to four bedroom units. This is an issuer plan, not a permit, not a certified occupancy limit, and it is not used as a denominator anywhere on this page.
One cited floor plate
Unknown until measured plans and code review arrive
- Daylight and window exposure per floor
- Usable depth from windows
- Core size and location
- Dwelling mix by bedroom count
- Minimum unit size under applicable code
The cited floor plate is not multiplied by the story count. A single quoted plate does not describe every floor.
Hypothetical: conditional one floor area and unit size
Your assumptions, not site measurements: usable daylight served share 70% of the cited 40,330 sq ft plate, and average unit area 750 sq ft.
Hypothetical conditional area on one example floor:
28,231 sq ft.
Hypothetical floor(area / unit area) on that one floor: 37.
- Without measured window schedules even the usable area assumption cannot be validated.
- One example floor only. The floor plate is not multiplied by the story count and this is not a whole building test fit.
- Not a count of permitted apartments and not a project unit estimate.
- Announced homes are kept separate and are not used here.
Break even purchase ceiling, unsolved
P_max = NSP + LUC − (HC + SC + CT + CI + TX + OX)
- NSP: Net sale proceeds at exit, after selling costs. Value: not provided.
- LUC: Net lease up cash before exit. Value: not provided.
- HC: Hard construction costs. Value: not provided.
- SC: Soft costs. Value: not provided.
- CT: Contingency. Value: not provided.
- CI: Construction interest and financing fees over the draw schedule. Value: not provided.
- TX: Real estate taxes and insurance while carrying the asset. Value: not provided.
- OX: Other project and carrying costs, including operating deficit. Value: not provided.
Break even purchase price: not computed. Decision status: blocked. No blank is filled with zero, a market guess, an illustration or a later number. The arranged loan is financing, not a term of this equation.
Inputs still missing
| Missing input | Unit | Value | Needed source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition consideration actually paid | USD | not provided | Signed purchase agreement or closing statement |
| Hard construction costs | USD | not provided | General contractor bid or guaranteed maximum price |
| Soft costs (design, legal, permits, fees) | USD | not provided | Sponsor development budget |
| Construction contingency | USD | not provided | Sponsor budget and lender approved contingency |
| Construction draw dates and amounts | dated USD schedule | not provided | Lender draw schedule |
| Lender interest index, spread, fees, maturity and tranche split | percent and USD | not provided | Executed loan agreement or term sheet |
| Interest reserve, insurance and carry during works | USD | not provided | Lender budget and insurance quotes |
| Real estate tax assessment and treatment during and after works | USD per year | not provided | Tax counsel memo on law in force at the as of date |
| Full resident income and rent mix by unit type | USD per month per unit | not provided | Unit by unit rent schedule and any regulatory agreement |
| Stabilized operating expenses | USD per year | not provided | Operating budget from property manager |
| Time to first occupancy and to stabilization | months | not provided | Construction and lease up schedule |
| Net cash flow during lease up | USD | not provided | Lease up pro forma |
| Exit assumption (capitalization rate or sale price) | percent or USD | not provided | Sponsor exit underwriting with dated support |
| Net sale proceeds after selling costs | USD | not provided | Derived only after exit assumption and selling costs are sourced |
| Residential conversion code and zoning review result | approval status | not provided | Architect and code consultant memo, filed applications |
| Measured floor plans and facade window schedule | drawings | not provided | Architect survey of existing conditions |
Next five diligence requests
- Measured existing condition plans for every floor with a facade window schedule, core outlines and depth from windows, so a usable area share can be measured instead of assumed.
- An architect and code consultant memo on residential conversion eligibility, light and air, minimum unit size and any required affordability, using only rules in force on the as of date.
- A signed or bid hard cost budget, soft cost budget and contingency, with the construction draw schedule by date.
- The executed loan terms: split of the financing between acquisition and redevelopment, interest index and spread, fees, reserves, draw conditions, maturity and required sponsor equity.
- A unit by unit rent and income mix, operating expense budget, real estate tax treatment, lease up timeline and a dated exit assumption.
Timeline as of the record
- 1969: building completed, per the source.
- December 22, 2022: financing announced, per PR Newswire release, source W1.
- Next: measured plans, code review, budget and loan terms. Not yet available.