Keep the completed David Justice and Billy Koch acquisitions in the plan. If contract rights and a workable role can be confirmed, pursue Rickey Henderson as the one additional hitter from the dated market list. This is a conditional call, not a claim he can be signed today. Justice report [MB4] · Koch report [MB5] · Market list [MB6]
SABR season rows [MB1] put Oakland's 2001 salaried roster at $33,810,750. Use that same figure as a hypothetical 2002 salary-only ceiling, not an actual club limit or a forecast of retained contracts. The three 2001 salaries free $14,503,333: Jason Giambi $4,103,333, Johnny Damon $7,100,000, and Jason Isringhausen $3,300,000. Jason and Jeremy Giambi have different playerIDs. All joins use IDs, not name similarity.
Reserve $3,300,000, Isringhausen's prior salary, for pitching. Oakland had already acquired Billy Koch by the December 8 report. His next salary and trade economics are not in this packet; this allowance does not price Koch. Completed closer deal [MB5]
Giambi plus Damon leave $11,203,333. Justice was already acquired December 14; his reported next-season salary is $7,000,000, with $1,200,000 paid by the Mets. Net Oakland obligation: $5,800,000; remaining illustrative hitter room: $5,403,333. At Henderson's 2001 salary proxy only, $5,103,333 would remain. No 2002 Henderson price is established. Completed Justice deal [MB4]
These four names intersect the December 9 list and the supplied 2001 batting and salary rows, joined by People playerID and 2001 team. The list does not certify December 22 availability, fielding fit, or an offer price. OBP = (H + BB + HBP) / (AB + BB + HBP + SF); reached = H + BB + HBP. Basic RC per $1 million of 2001 salary is a hypothetical historical efficiency measure. Dated list [MB6] · Batting, People, salaries [MB1] · RC definition [MB3]
| Player / ID / team | Salary | PA | Reached | OBP | RC / $1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickey Henderson (henderi01, SDN) | $300,000 | 465 | 170 | 0.366 | 160.949 |
| Reggie Sanders (sandere02, ARI) | $1,500,000 | 495 | 167 | 0.337 | 53.667 |
| Stan Javier (javiest01, SEA) | $1,500,000 | 320 | 120 | 0.375 | 27.298 |
| Ron Coomer (coomero01, CHN) | $1,100,000 | 386 | 122 | 0.316 | 39.250 |
Henderson reached 170 times in 465 PA at a .366 OBP, exceeding Sanders' 167 reaches and .337 OBP despite 30 fewer PA; Sanders supplied much more power and a higher unpriced aggregate model case. Javier's .375 OBP leads but comes in only 320 PA at five times Henderson's 2001 salary. Coomer's .316 OBP, 122 reaches and 386 PA lag Henderson, at over three times that salary. RC per 2001 salary dollar favors Henderson over all three, but tells us nothing about a current bid.
Basic MLB RC [MB3] = TB × (H + BB) / (AB + BB); TB = H + 2B + 2×3B + 3×HR. Apply the formula to team totals, not a sum of individual RC. PA includes HBP and SF for workload and OBP, but these do not appear in basic RC. The 2001 Oakland team actually scored 884 runs; the model estimates 829.615 runs, an error of -54.385 runs (estimate minus observed). Neither scenario predicts next-season runs. 2001 team and batting [MB1]
Derived: TB 2444; PA 6360. These totals match the supplied 2001 Oakland team row.
Subtract Giambi and Damon 2001 Oakland lines, add Justice's 2001 NYA batting line and one candidate's 2001 line. Multi-stint players are joined by playerID and team for the roster, not merged into Oakland from other clubs. Justice's 2001 439 PA and Henderson's 465 cover only 904 of Giambi and Damon's 1,385 PA. Missing opportunity stays missing.
Hypothetical 2001 batting substitution, not a signed roster. Batting [MB1] · Method [MB3]
Same frozen baseline, different MB6 candidate, not a signing. Batting [MB1] · Method [MB3]
The Justice + Henderson modeled total loses 481 PA against the 2001 baseline. Replacement playing time, baserunning, double plays, defense, other trades, and Koch's future contract or performance are unknown. The baseline error alone rules out reading a modeled change as an observed run change.
Confirm Henderson is still available on December 22, establish actual contract rights, salary, and a usable fielding role before bidding. Reject this target if those checks fail or if a real cost breaks the salary-only hitter envelope after Justice; revisit Sanders or the market rather than invent a 2002 price. Sanders' 2001 power raises the aggregate hypothetical RC, but his 2001 salary was five times Henderson's and his OBP and times reached were lower. This choice favors on-base access per historical salary dollar, while admitting the much larger unfilled workload and production gap.