East Palestine vent and burn: what the February 2023 record said, and what the 2024 board finding adds

The change, in the sources' words

On February 23, 2023 the NTSB preliminary report said the temperature inside one tank car was still rising and that this suggested that the vinyl chloride was undergoing a polymerization reaction (NTSB preliminary report, PDF p. 3). It printed no temperature values.

The NTSB final report, dated June 25, 2024 and reissued with corrections on July 23, 2024, prints a shell temperature series for tank car OCPX80370. Across that series the reading went from 135 °F at 4:00 p.m. on February 5 to 126 °F at 2:30 p.m. on February 6, a change of -9 °F over 22 h 30 min, and from the 138 °F peak to 126 °F, a change of -12 °F (NTSB final report, corrected, PDF p. 39). The report then concludes that the vent and burn procedure was not necessary to prevent a polymerization-induced tank rupture. (NTSB final report, corrected, PDF p. 184)

That finding concerns polymerization. It does not, in these excerpts, evaluate every hazard a damaged, pressurized tank car can pose.


Preliminary record (EP1) and the unchanged initial call

Only material available in the preliminary report appears in this column.

What the record said about the tank cars

continued to concern authorities because the temperature inside one tank car was still rising.

This increase in temperature suggested that the vinyl chloride was undergoing a polymerization reaction, which could pose an explosion hazard.

The controlled venting began about 4:40 p.m. on February 6 and continued for several hours.

Frozen bearing figures

Frozen initial figures: one suspect wheel bearing, °F above ambient, in detector passage order. No clock times or ambient values were reported. NTSB preliminary report, PDF p. 3
DetectorReadingChange
MP 79.938first reading
MP 69.01103+65
MP 49.81253+150
Initial chart, redrawn from the frozen figures: one wheel bearing, °F above ambient, by detector. Red dashed lines are the alarm thresholds the report attributes to NS.
Initial chart: wheel bearing readings, °F above ambient, by detectorThree bars: 38 at MP 79.9, 103 at MP 69.01, 253 at MP 49.81. Same suspect wheel bearing on the 23rd car. Source EP1 page 3.170 warm200 critical38MP 79.9103MP 69.01253MP 49.81°F above ambient (no clock times)Source: EP1, PDF p. 3

The third HBD, at MP 49.81, recorded the suspect bearing’s temperature at 253°F above ambient.

The initial bounded call (analysis file, unchanged)

  • Possible polymerization hazard reported: yes
  • Imminent rupture established: no
  • Venting necessity established: no

The NTSB preliminary report issued February 23, 2023 says responders began a controlled venting and burning of five derailed vinyl chloride tank cars about 4:40 p.m. on February 6 because the temperature inside one tank car was still rising, which the report says suggested polymerization that could pose an explosion hazard. The report publishes no tank temperature readings and no analysis establishing an imminent rupture or the necessity of venting, and the NTSB lists the venting and burning for review. The three detector readings it does publish, 38, 103 and 253°F above ambient, are of a wheel bearing on the 23rd car, not of any tank car.

Initial analysis, public statement, written to the February 23, 2023 cutoff

The initial analysis asked first for The time stamped internal temperature log for the tank car reported as still rising, from February 5 through the start of venting on February 6.

Not in this record

Any tank temperature value, the car number, how or where the temperature was measured, who decided on venting, and any final finding. The report says:

This information is preliminary and subject to change.

Board date
Final report findings (EP2), text from the corrected reissue of

This report was reissued on July 23, 2024, with corrections to the description of the tank car TILX402025 lease

The note places the corrections on report pages 57 to 58, outside the excerpts used here. The findings below carry the June 25, 2024 board date.

Bearing: the actual finding

The National Transportation Safety Board determines that the probable cause of the derailment involving Norfolk Southern Railway train 32N was the failure of the L1 bearing on the 23rd railcar in the consist that overheated and caused the axle to separate, derailing the train

Wheel bearing on the 23rd car, °F above ambient: initial readings beside the later report. Because 253 is the detector maximum, the change from MP 69.01 to MP 49.81 is at least 150, not exactly 150. NTSB final report, corrected, PDF p. 22
DetectorFeb 2023 record2024 reportComputed
MP 79.938Not restated in the EP2 excerptsnot computable
MP 69.01103103 on the L1 bearing; R1 was 20L1 minus R1: 83
MP 49.81253253 on the L1 bearing, the detector maximum; R1 was 20L1 minus R1: at least 233

A reading of 253°F above ambient is the maximum reading for the type of HBD installed at MP 49.81; the actual temperature may have been higher.

The HBD transmitted a non-critical alert to the advanced train control (ATC) desk about the temperature of the L1 bearing but, as designed, did not broadcast an alarm to the train’s crew.

Tank car shell measurements, February 5 to 6, 2023

This chart: tank car OCPX80370 shell, absolute °F, by clock time, February 5 to 6, from EP2 (2024). reading during a small fire. Grey band: no values printed. Dashed line: charges detonated.

Not this chart: the initial bar chart in the February column shows a wheel bearing on the 23rd car, °F above ambient, by detector, February 3, from EP1 (2023). The two charts measure different objects in different units and are not comparable.

Shell temperature of one tank car. Every value in the chart is in the table below. NTSB final report, corrected, PDF p. 39
Tank car OCPX80370 shell temperature, °F, February 5 to 6, 2023Readings from 135 at 4:00 p.m. February 5, peak 138 at 5:00 p.m., 139 at midnight during a small fire, lowest 120 at 7:00 a.m., then 126 from 9:30 a.m. through 2:30 p.m. February 6. No values from 2:00 to 4:00 a.m. Charges detonated 4:37 p.m. Source EP2 Table 3, PDF page 39.1201251301351401454 p.m.Feb 510 p.m.Feb 54 a.m.Feb 610 a.m.Feb 64 p.m.Feb 6no valuesvent 4:37 p.m.Feb 5, 2023, 4:00 p.m.: 135 °F shellFeb 5, 2023, 5:00 p.m.: 138 °F shellFeb 5, 2023, 6:00 p.m.: 136 °F shellFeb 5, 2023, 7:00 p.m.: 136 °F shellFeb 5, 2023, 8:00 p.m.: 130 °F shellFeb 5, 2023, 9:00 p.m.: 130 °F shellFeb 5, 2023, 10:00 p.m.: 130 °F shellFeb 5, 2023, 11:00 p.m.: 131 °F shellFeb 6, 2023, 12:00 a.m.: 139 °F shell (small fire under car)Feb 6, 2023, 1:00 a.m.: 129 °F shellFeb 6, 2023, 7:00 a.m.: 120 °F shellFeb 6, 2023, 8:37 a.m.: 127 °F shellFeb 6, 2023, 9:30 a.m.: 126 °F shellFeb 6, 2023, 10:30 a.m.: 126 °F shellFeb 6, 2023, 11:30 a.m.: 126 °F shellFeb 6, 2023, 12:30 p.m.: 126 °F shellFeb 6, 2023, 1:30 p.m.: 126 °F shellFeb 6, 2023, 2:30 p.m.: 126 °F shell138139 fire°F, absolute shell reading, one tank carSource: EP2 Table 3, PDF p. 39
Tank car OCPX80370 shell temperature, °F (absolute), all 21 rows of the transcribed Table 3 column. In the source only the first row of each day carries a date; the date is repeated here. Change compares each value with the previous printed value. NTSB final report, corrected, PDF p. 39
DateTimeShell °FChangeNote
Feb 5, 20234:00 p.m.135first reading
Feb 5, 20235:00 p.m.138+3 over 1 h
Feb 5, 20236:00 p.m.136-2 over 1 h
Feb 5, 20237:00 p.m.1360 over 1 h
Feb 5, 20238:00 p.m.130-6 over 1 h
Feb 5, 20239:00 p.m.1300 over 1 h
Feb 5, 202310:00 p.m.1300 over 1 h
Feb 5, 202311:00 p.m.131+1 over 1 h
Feb 6, 202312:00 a.m.139+8 over 1 hSmall fire under the car (fire chief)
Feb 6, 20231:00 a.m.129-10 over 1 h
Feb 6, 20232:00 a.m.no value printednot computedPrinted as a hyphen
Feb 6, 20233:00 a.m.no value printednot computedPrinted as a hyphen
Feb 6, 20234:00 a.m.no value printednot computedPrinted as a hyphen
Feb 6, 20237:00 a.m.120-9 over 6 h, across missing values
Feb 6, 20238:37 a.m.127+7 over 1 h 37 min
Feb 6, 20239:30 a.m.126-1 over 53 min
Feb 6, 202310:30 a.m.1260 over 1 h
Feb 6, 202311:30 a.m.1260 over 1 h
Feb 6, 202312:30 p.m.1260 over 1 h
Feb 6, 20231:30 p.m.1260 over 1 h
Feb 6, 20232:30 p.m.1260 over 1 h

Across the period: first reading 135, last 126, change -9 °F over 22 h 30 min. Highest reading apart from the fire-coincident 139: 138 at 5:00 p.m. on February 5; change from there to the last reading: -12 °F over 21 h 30 min. Lowest: 120 at 7:00 a.m. on February 6. 18 of 21 rows carry a value.

When interviewed by the NTSB, the EPFD fire chief noted that this increase in temperature coincided with the ignition of a small fire underneath tank car OCPX80370, and that the temperature decreased after the fire was extinguished.

By the time of the meetings on February 6, the highest tank car temperatures had fallen from about 138°F the previous afternoon to about 126°F.

This increase to 138°F on the afternoon of February 5 was close to the highest temperature recorded on a tank car shell (139°F, measured during a brief fire under the tank car about midnight on February 5-6).

Polymerization and the vent and burn justification

26. The observed downward temperature trend in tank car OCPX80370 indicates that polymerization was not occurring within the tank car, contrary to the representation by Norfolk Southern Railway and its contractors.

27. The vinyl chloride monomer within the derailed DOT-105 tank cars remained in a stabilized environment until the vent and burn and did not undergo polymerization; the vent and burn procedure was not necessary to prevent a polymerization-induced tank rupture.

According to information Oxy Vinyls provided the NTSB after the vent and burn, a runaway polymerization reaction would produce “a rapid, significant, and sustained increase in temperature and pressure.” The dashed red trendline in the figure shows a gradual decline instead.

Evidence available after the vent and burn also does not support polymerization. During the vent and burn, all five VCM tank cars expelled material, indicating that the cars were still under positive internal pressure.

Finally, Oxy Vinyls performed laboratory analyses on residue samples recovered from the interiors of the VCM tank cars. While these analyses did not definitively rule out the presence of PVC (VCM and PVC are chemically similar) they did not find evidence of PVC.

The residue analysis is not conclusive on its own: the report says it did not definitively rule out the presence of PVC (NTSB final report, corrected, PDF p. 164).

Documented communication path to the incident commander

Attributed quotations only. The excerpts do not state why anyone communicated or did not, and this page does not guess.

  1. NS to incident commander and NTSB on scene: 3°F increase on OCPX80370 as an indication of polymerization

    In discussions with the incident commander and the NTSB on scene, NS noted a 3°F increase in temperature for tank car OCPX80370 as an indication that polymerization was occurring.

  2. SPSI and SRS to incident commander: 3:00 p.m. deadline

    The vent and burn was originally scheduled for 1:00 p.m. on February 6, 2 hours ahead of the 3:00 p.m. deadline described to the incident commander by SPSI and SRS.

  3. Oxy Vinyls to NS and NS contractors (not the incident commander): conclusion that dangerous polymerization was not occurring

    Oxy Vinyls, which was providing support to NS and its contractors but was not in direct communication with the incident commander, concluded based on the same evidence and its own knowledge of VCM that dangerous polymerization was not occurring. Oxy Vinyls shared its conclusions with NS and NS’s contractors while on the scene; these conclusions were not communicated to the incident commander.

  4. Oxy Vinyls to incident commander: no communication reported by the incident commander (not invited to the meetings, not present, no contact outside them)

    According to the incident commander, no Oxy Vinyls employees were invited to these meetings, and none were present. Nor did any Oxy Vinyls employees communicate with the incident commander outside these meetings.

The 3 °F increase the report attributes to NS matches the change computed from the table, 135 to 138 between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. on February 5. The same table shows later readings at or below 138 apart from the fire-coincident 139.

The vent and burn time is consistent across the two dates: about 4:40 p.m. in the preliminary record, 4:37 p.m. for detonation in the final report.

ESI detonated the vent and burn charges at 4:37 p.m. for all five VCM tank cars, puncturing each tank car at two points: the highest point in the vapor space and the lowest point where the liquid had pooled.

Open: how the later evidence changes the February assessment

The February record supported only a possible hazard: a rising temperature that suggested polymerization (NTSB preliminary report, PDF p. 3). The initial call therefore marked imminent rupture and venting necessity as not established. The later report supplies the missing measurements and then reaches a finding, in these words:

The NTSB concludes that the observed downward temperature trend in tank car OCPX80370 indicates that polymerization was not occurring within the tank car, contrary to the representation by NS and its contractors.

cannot polymerize when exposed to heat without the presence of an initiator (free radicals), and it cannot sustain a polymerization reaction without the continued introduction of free radicals, which are consumed during the polymerization process.

Evidence available after the vent and burn also does not support polymerization. During the vent and burn, all five VCM tank cars expelled material, indicating that the cars were still under positive internal pressure.

27. The vinyl chloride monomer within the derailed DOT-105 tank cars remained in a stabilized environment until the vent and burn and did not undergo polymerization; the vent and burn procedure was not necessary to prevent a polymerization-induced tank rupture.

Part of that support (the expelled material, PRD examinations and residue analyses) is evidence the report itself describes as available after the vent and burn. The shell readings were recorded before it; EP2 says Oxy Vinyls shared its conclusion with NS and its contractors while on the scene, without giving a time. The finding is limited to polymerization-induced rupture.

What was and was not knowable at each date

Entries for February 3 to 6 use detail published in 2024; none of it was in the February 23, 2023 public record.

  1. detail from EP2, published 2024

    Recorded or available then: HBD readings on the L1 bearing (103 at MP 69.01, a non-critical alert to the ATC desk only; 253 at MP 49.81, the detector maximum).

    Not knowable then: The board's probable cause finding.

  2. detail from EP2 Table 3, published 2024

    Recorded or available then: Shell readings on OCPX80370 from 4:00 p.m.: 135, then 138 at 5:00 p.m. (+3), then 136 to 130 through 11:00 p.m.

    Not knowable then: Readings on February 6; post vent evidence.

  3. detail from EP2, published 2024

    Recorded or available then: Readings were 129 at 1:00 a.m., none printed for 2:00 to 4:00 a.m., 120 at 7:00 a.m., 127 at 8:37 a.m., then 126 from 9:30 a.m. through 2:30 p.m.; 139 at midnight coincided with a small fire. EP2 says Oxy Vinyls shared its conclusion with NS and its contractors while on the scene, not with the incident commander; the excerpt gives no clock time for this. Charges detonated at 4:37 p.m.

    Not knowable then: Before 4:37 p.m.: that all five cars would expel material on venting (positive pressure), PRD examinations, and residue analyses, which EP2 describes as evidence available after the vent and burn.

  4. detail from EP1

    Recorded or available then: Public preliminary record: one tank car temperature still rising; this suggested polymerization that could pose an explosion hazard; venting began about 4:40 p.m.

    Not knowable then: From the public record: any tank temperature value, the car number, the shell versus contents distinction, the communication path, and every board finding.

  5. detail from EP2

    Recorded or available then: Board findings 26 and 27 and the probable cause.

    Not knowable then: Not applicable; this is the finding date.

  6. detail from EP2

    Recorded or available then: Corrected reissue; the reissue note limits corrections to the TILX402025 lease description on report pages 57 to 58.

    Not knowable then: Not applicable.

Measurement limitations

Residual unknowns

Sources: NTSB preliminary report RRD23MR005, issued February 23, 2023; NTSB final report RIR-24-05, board date June 25, 2024, corrected reissue July 23, 2024. Links open the original PDFs and are not loaded by this page.