Decision date . Evidence frozen at that date; nothing later is used. Bounded cases only; none is weighted or scored.
Sustainment bridge
Baseline finding: Not demonstrated. On the July record, aircraft sustainment after contractors leave is bounded to a few months.
The record does not show that the Afghan Air Force could sustain its aircraft once contractors leave. It shows a contractor-dependent fleet: 143 of 162 aircraft usable, 409 contracted maintainers on 5 of 7 airframes, and the C-130 at 9 of 60 required qualified maintainers.
The only sourced time bound is a quoted assessment: without contractor support, no airframe stays combat effective for more than a few months. Contractors must leave with U.S. forces; remote support is planned but not described.
Plan on the no-contractor case unless remote support is shown to restore aircraft and supply parts. The President's statement that the force has the capacity is a quoted assessment; the maintenance data support it only while contractor support continues.
On ground logistics the packet has no capacity data, only the report that Taliban fighters targeted highways to limit resupply.
This is a maintenance and logistics call. Readiness data alone do not predict political cohesion, battlefield performance, or when any change in government might occur, and this audit makes no such forecast.
Now, with contractors
Supported baseline
143 of 162 aircraft usable (88.3%) on . AF3 Lead IG
18 of 42 aircrew positions qualified (42.9%), . AF2 SIGAR
409 contracted maintainers on 5 of 7 airframes. AF2 SIGAR
Departure
Contractor exit
Contractors will be required to withdraw along with U.S. military forces. AF3 Lead IG page 3
Departure date: not in the packet.
Sourced bound
A few months
Without continued contractor support, no airframe can be sustained as combat effective for more than a few months. TAAC-Air, . AF2 SIGAR
Status: quoted assessment, conditioned on parts stock, airframe capability and timing.
What could extend it
Unproven supports
Remote contractor logistics support: being planned, content not described. AF3 Lead IG
Spare parts in country: not reported.
Qualified Afghan maintainers: full on 3 of 7 airframes; the C-130 has 9 of 60. AF2 SIGAR
Aircrew, aircraft, maintainer and contractor evidence
Sustainment measures with units, shares, dates and sources.
Aircrew from Table 2.10 (page 86); maintainer fill and contractors from Table 2.12 (page 88); data as of . AF2 SIGAR. Fill is the percent of positions filled with the required number of qualified maintainers; over one hundred percent means an excess. Basic, middle and advanced are the report's levels three, two and one.
Airframe
Qualified aircrew
Aircrew share
Basic fill
Middle fill
Advanced fill
Contracted maintainers
A-29
2 of 4
50.0%
78%
61%
118%
39
AC-208
2 of 7
28.6%
233%
120%
125%
41
C-208
2 of 5
40.0%
261%
154%
290%
Not reported
C-130
4 of 7
57.1%
28%
0%
33%
25
Mi-17
3 of 6
50.0%
765%
375%
566%
Not reported
MD-530
2 of 5
40.0%
93%
61%
109%
106
UH-60
3 of 8
37.5%
104%
0%
0%
198
All airframes
18 of 42
42.9%
Not summed
Not summed
Not summed
409 reported
Inventory versus usable, positions versus qualified
Bars start at zero. Aircraft as of from AF3 Lead IG; aircrew positions as of from AF2 SIGAR. Each panel has its own unit and scale.
Three bounded cases; none is weighted or scored. The packet gives no contractor departure date, so every case counts from the decision date, , the earliest case; a later departure moves each date later by the same interval. The review date uses an assumed central reading of 3 months for "a few months" and the outer date an assumed 6 months.
Bound without contractors: a few months (quoted assessment). AF2 SIGARAF3 Lead IG
Case A: Continued contractor support
Contract maintainers stay in country after U.S. forces leave. This case runs against the stated plan: contractors will be required to withdraw along with U.S. military forces. AF3 Lead IG page 3
Sustainment interpretation
Aircraft sustainment is limited by contractor presence, not by a calendar. The binding limit moves to aircrew: 18 of 42 positions (42.9%) were qualified.
Dated bounds
From . By : Near the observed baseline. By : Near the observed baseline; no sourced end date.
Sourced facts
143 of 162 aircraft usable (88.3%) on , while contractors were only beginning to return. AF3 Lead IG page 28
Contractors provide logistics support, mentoring, training and supervision, and restore readiness. AF2 SIGAR page 88
409 contracted maintainers on 5 of 7 airframes. AF2 SIGAR page 88
Bounded assumption, not a source fact
Readiness holds near the observed usable share of 88.3% through the outer date, still held down by over-plan flying. No source sets an end date for this case.
Would falsify or revise
A later fleet count shows the usable share below 88.3% while contractors are still in place.
Confirmation that the withdrawal requirement stands, which removes this case from planning.
Case B: Remote or partial support
Contractors leave the country but give remote logistics support, or a reduced presence remains. USFOR-A was developing a remote support plan; its content is not in the packet. AF3 Lead IG page 3
Sustainment interpretation
Sustainment splits by airframe. The fleet keeps the types with a full Afghan maintainer bench and loses the types with an empty level. The packet does not show that remote support can restore aircraft, which TAAC-Air describes as hands-on contractor work.
Dated bounds
From . By : UH-60 and C-130 at the central bound; fully filled types held. By : Fully filled types held only if remote support restores aircraft and moves parts; the rest not counted.
Sourced facts
USFOR-A was developing plans for remote contractor logistics support to Afghan aviation maintainers. AF3 Lead IG page 3
DoD already ran most train, advise and assist work virtually and was planning over-the-horizon support. AF3 Lead IG page 2
Qualified Afghan maintainers fill every level on 3 of 7 airframes (Mi-17, AC-208, C-208); UH-60 and C-130 have a level at zero fill. AF2 SIGAR page 88
Even fully filled airframes use contractors: the AC-208 lists 41. AF2 SIGAR page 88
Bounded assumption, not a source fact
Remote support keeps the 3 fully filled airframes combat effective past the outer date; the 2 airframes with a zero-filled level follow the no-contractor bound; the other 2 (MD-530 and A-29) stay undetermined. Dates count from the decision date because no departure date is given.
Would falsify or revise
The remote support plan is published and excludes parts supply or on-site repair.
A fully filled airframe loses combat effectiveness within the few-month window after contractors leave.
A zero-filled airframe stays combat effective past the outer date without contractors, which would mean the fill data overstate dependence.
Case C: No contractor support
Contractors withdraw with U.S. forces and no remote support arrives. This matches the stated withdrawal requirement if the remote plan does not materialize. AF3 Lead IG page 3
Sustainment interpretation
No airframe can be counted on as combat effective after the outer date. The source does not rank airframes; the fill data point first to UH-60 and C-130.
Dated bounds
From . By : All airframes at the central reading of the bound. By : No airframe counted as combat effective.
Sourced facts
TAAC-Air assessed in that without continued contractor support none of the airframes can be sustained as combat effective for more than a few months. AF2 SIGAR
Aviation advisors gave the same bound. AF3 Lead IG page 3
The C-130 had 9 of 60 required qualified maintainers (15.0%); the UH-60 had zero fill at the middle and advanced levels and 198 contracted maintainers. AF2 SIGAR page 88
All aircraft types flew above planned utilization. AF3 Lead IG page 28
Bounded assumption, not a source fact
Read "a few months" as about 3 months, with 6 months as the outer edge, counted from the decision date because the packet gives no departure date. A later departure moves both dates by the same interval. Parts stock, which the packet does not report, could move the bound either way.
Would falsify or revise
Parts stock and per-airframe readiness data show airframes staying combat effective past the outer date without contractors.
TAAC-Air or the advisors revise the few-month bound.
A departure date later than the decision date, which moves both dates later by the same interval.
Dated scenario bounds
All three cases side by side.
Case
Starts
By
By
Main falsifier
Case A: Continued contractor support
or contractor departure if later
Near the observed baseline.
Near the observed baseline; no sourced end date.
A later fleet count shows the usable share below 88.3% while contractors are still in place.
Case B: Remote or partial support
or contractor departure if later
UH-60 and C-130 at the central bound; fully filled types held.
Fully filled types held only if remote support restores aircraft and moves parts; the rest not counted.
The remote support plan is published and excludes parts supply or on-site repair.
Case C: No contractor support
or contractor departure if later
All airframes at the central reading of the bound.
No airframe counted as combat effective.
Parts stock and per-airframe readiness data show airframes staying combat effective past the outer date without contractors.
What the sources establish, suggest, and leave unknown
Established by observation
143 of 162 aircraft were usable (88.3%) on . AF3 Lead IG
Only 18 of 42 aircrew positions (42.9%) were filled with qualified personnel in . AF2 SIGAR
409 contracted maintainers worked on 5 of 7 airframes; the largest group, 198, supported the UH-60, which had zero fill at the middle and advanced levels. AF2 SIGAR
The C-130 had 9 qualified maintainers against 60 required (15.0%), with 25 contractors, 2.8 per qualified Afghan maintainer. AF2 SIGAR
Aviation contractors will be required to withdraw with U.S. forces, and remote contractor logistics support was only being planned. AF3 Lead IG
All aircraft types flew above planned utilization, causing overlapping maintenance. AF3 Lead IG
Suggested, not proven
Quoted assessment: without contractor support no airframe stays combat effective for more than a few months (TAAC-Air, ; advisors). This is an expert judgment with stated conditions, not a measured result. AF2 SIGARAF3 Lead IG
Quoted assessment: aircraft maintenance is a critical gap needing long-term international support. AF2 SIGAR
Quoted assessment: the President said the force has the capacity and the U.S. will ensure it can maintain its air force. The maintenance data support capacity only while contractor support continues. AF1 White House
Inference: the UH-60 and the C-130, with a level at zero fill, would lose support soonest; the source does not rank airframes.
Inference: fully filled airframes (Mi-17, AC-208, C-208) depend less on contractors, though the AC-208 still lists 41 contracted maintainers.
Inference: flying above planned utilization shortens the bridge, because it stacks maintenance demand while contractor help is leaving.
Unknown
When will contractor maintenance support actually end? Every scenario date is counted from that day. The packet says contractors leave with U.S. forces but gives no date. Would resolve: A published contractor drawdown schedule.
How large is the stock of spare parts in country, by airframe? TAAC-Air names parts stock as a condition on the few-month bound. Would resolve: Parts inventory and days of supply for each airframe.
What will remote contractor logistics support cover, and can it restore aircraft? Remote support is the only planned bridge. Restoring aircraft is described as a hands-on contractor task. Would resolve: The USFOR-A remote support plan, with scope, staffing and parts flow.
How many months does "a few months" mean, and does it differ by airframe? It is the only sourced time bound. This audit reads it with labeled assumptions. Would resolve: An airframe-by-airframe sustainment estimate from TAAC-Air.
How many contracted maintainers support the Mi-17 and the C-208? The table shows a dash for both, yet the report says the C-208 still uses contractors. Would resolve: A complete contractor count by airframe.
How many usable aircraft are there of each type? The fleet total cannot show which airframes are closest to the bound. Would resolve: Inventory and usable counts by airframe, with dates.
What are the absolute qualified and required maintainer counts for each airframe? Fill percentages hide fleet size. Only the C-130 has counts. Would resolve: Headcounts behind Table 2.12.
How many enrolled personnel are present for duty? The force figure counts people enrolled and eligible for pay. Would resolve: Present-for-duty strength by component.
Can ground forces be resupplied without contractors and with highways contested? The packet has no fuel, ammunition or vehicle maintenance data, only the report of Taliban pressure on highways. Would resolve: Ground resupply and vehicle readiness data.
Did readiness, aircrew or maintainer figures change after the latest data in the packet? The newest figures are 99 days old for aircraft and at least 69 days old for aircrew and maintainers on the decision date. Would resolve: Figures for the quarter that ended before the decision date.
How will the promised funding and maintenance capacity be delivered? The President pledged it; no delivery method appears in the packet. Would resolve: A funded sustainment plan with contracts and delivery dates.
Inconsistencies inside the packet
The civilian parts (3,031 MOD plus 3,579 MOI, total 6,610) do not add to the stated 7,715; 1,105 are unexplained. AF2 SIGAR page 74
The packet header for AF2 lists report pages 73, 74, 75, 87, 88, but excerpts are tagged page 86 and page 14, outside that list. The few-month assessment carries no page tag.
The report calls the C-130 weakest at each maintenance level, but in percentage terms the UH-60 is lower at the advanced level (0% versus 33%) and equal at the middle level. Absolute counts would settle it; they are not given.
The report says the C-208 still uses DoD contractors, yet its contractor cell in Table 2.12 is empty.
Source ledger
Every claim with its source, publication date, data date, page and status. Quotes are verbatim.
Claim
Status
Source
Published
Data as of
Page
CSTC-A reported 307,947 ANDSF personnel biometrically enrolled and eligible for pay (186,859 MOD, 121,088 MOI). This is a payroll measure, not present-for-duty strength.
All aircraft types flew above planned utilization rates, producing overlapping maintenance schedules and fewer aircraft available on a given day. all AAF aircraft types exceeded planned utilization rates
Qualified maintainers met the requirement at every level on 3 of 7 airframes (Mi-17, AC-208, C-208); UH-60 and C-130 show zero fill at one or more levels (Table 2.12).
TAAC-Air: contractors provide logistics support, mentoring, on-the-job training and supervision, and help restore aircraft readiness. these contractors provide continued logistics support, mentoring, on-the-job training, and supervision
TAAC-Air: without continued contractor support, no airframe can be sustained as combat effective for more than a few months, depending on parts stock, airframe maintenance capability, and when support is withdrawn. TAAC-Air assessed in that without continued contractor support, none of the AAF’s airframes can be sustained as combat effective for more than a few months, depending on the stock of equipment parts in-country, the maintenance capability on each airframe, and when contractor support is withdrawn
Aviation advisors: combat effectiveness cannot be sustained for more than a few months without contractor support. combat effectiveness of AAF aircraft cannot be sustained for more than a few months without contractor support
The aviation support contractors will be required to withdraw along with U.S. military forces. No date is given in the packet. these contractors will be required to withdraw along with U.S. military forces
Aviation support contractors began to return to theater during the quarter as pandemic restrictions eased. Aviation support contractors began to return to theater this quarter
USFOR-A said it is developing plans for remote contractor logistics support to Afghan aviation maintainers. The plan's content is not described. developing plans to provide remote contractor logistics support to Afghan aviation maintainers
DoD conducted most train, advise and assist work virtually and was planning over-the-horizon support after the withdrawal. planning ways to provide over-the-horizon support to the Afghan forces after the withdrawal is completed
The report described a deteriorating security situation, with Taliban fighters targeting highways to limit resupply of Afghan forces. Taliban fighters concentrated on controlling highways to limit the ANDSF’s ability to resupply its forces
SIGAR's high-risk list names aircraft maintenance as a critical capability gap that requires long-term international support. critical capability gaps such as aircraft maintenance that require long-term international support
The President pledged continued funding and equipment and said the U.S. would ensure the capacity to maintain the air force. No mechanism is described. we’ll ensure they have the capacity to maintain their air force
The President gave his own judgment on whether the Taliban could overrun the whole country. This audit neither adopts nor tests it. the likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely
When will contractor maintenance support actually end?
Unknown
None in packet
Not applicable
Not applicable
None
How large is the stock of spare parts in country, by airframe?
Unknown
None in packet
Not applicable
Not applicable
None
What will remote contractor logistics support cover, and can it restore aircraft?
Unknown
None in packet
Not applicable
Not applicable
None
How many months does "a few months" mean, and does it differ by airframe?
Unknown
None in packet
Not applicable
Not applicable
None
How many contracted maintainers support the Mi-17 and the C-208?
Unknown
None in packet
Not applicable
Not applicable
None
How many usable aircraft are there of each type?
Unknown
None in packet
Not applicable
Not applicable
None
What are the absolute qualified and required maintainer counts for each airframe?
Unknown
None in packet
Not applicable
Not applicable
None
How many enrolled personnel are present for duty?
Unknown
None in packet
Not applicable
Not applicable
None
Can ground forces be resupplied without contractors and with highways contested?
Unknown
None in packet
Not applicable
Not applicable
None
Did readiness, aircrew or maintainer figures change after the latest data in the packet?
Unknown
None in packet
Not applicable
Not applicable
None
How will the promised funding and maintenance capacity be delivered?
Unknown
None in packet
Not applicable
Not applicable
None
How the numbers were computed
Usable share: 143 usable divided by 162 in inventory gives 88.3%; 19 aircraft not usable.
Aircrew: the seven airframe rows sum to 42 positions and 18 qualified, matching the table total; share 42.9%; 24 without qualified crew.
Contractors: the five reported cells sum to 409 maintainers. Shares of that total: MD-530 25.9%; UH-60 48.4%; A-29 9.5%; AC-208 10.0%; C-130 6.1%.
Maintainer fill: 3 airframes have every level at or above full fill, matching the report text; 2 have a level at zero; 2 are in between.
C-130: 9 qualified divided by 60 required gives 15.0%; gap 51; 25 contractors divided by 9 qualified gives 2.8.
Force: 186,859 MOD plus 121,088 MOI equals 307,947, matching the stated 307,947.
Data age on the decision date: personnel 161 days; aircraft 99 days; aircrew and maintainer tables 69 to 98 days; TAAC-Air assessment 158 to 188 days.
Sources
AF1 White House: The White House, transcript excerpts, published .
AF2 SIGAR: Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, report to Congress, published .
AF3 Lead IG: Lead Inspector General for Operation Freedom's Sentinel, report to Congress, published .
Every number on this page is parsed from the two packet files by the audit script and re-derived independently by the check script. Statuses: observed means a count, table value, event or stated plan reported as fact; quoted assessment means a judgment attributed to an official, office or advisor; unknown means a decision-relevant fact the packet lacks. Dashes in the transcript are not reproduced; quotes are trimmed at them.