AF1. Remarks by President Biden on the Drawdown of U.S. Forces in Afghanistan, The White House, July 8, 2021. URL in SOURCES.csv. Faithful selected transcript excerpts, published July 8, 2021, East Room, 2:09 P.M. EDT.

THE PRESIDENT: Together, with our NATO Allies and partners, we have trained and equipped over three hu- — nearly 300,000 current serving members of the military — of the Afghan National Security Force, and many beyond that who are no longer serving. Add to that, hundreds of thousands more Afghan National Defense and Security Forces trained over the last two decades.

We provided our Afghan partners with all the tools — let me emphasize, all the tools, training, and equipment of any modern military. We provided advanced weaponry. And we’re going to continue to provide funding and equipment. And we’ll ensure they have the capacity to maintain their air force.

THE PRESIDENT: Because you — the Afghan troops have 300,000 well-equipped — as well-equipped as any army in the world — and an air force against something like 75,000 Taliban. It is not inevitable.

THE PRESIDENT: The Afghan government and leadership has to come together. They clearly have the capacity to sustain the government in place. The question is: Will they generate the kind of cohesion to do it? It’s not a question of whether they have the capacity. They have the capacity. They have the forces. They have the equipment. The question is: Will they do it?

THE PRESIDENT: And I want to make clear what I made clear to Ghani: that we are not going just sus- — walk away and not sustain their ability to maintain that force. We are.

THE PRESIDENT: But the likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.

AF2. Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, April 30, 2021. Report pages 73-75, 87-88. URL in SOURCES.csv. Faithful selected excerpts, data as of January or April 2021 as noted.

As of January 28, 2021, CSTC-A reported 307,947 ANDSF personnel (186,859 MOD and 121,088 MOI) biometrically enrolled and eligible for pay in APPS. There are an additional 7,715 civilians (3,031 MOD and 3,579 MOI). [Report page 74.]

TABLE 2.10, AIRCREW POSITIONS FILLED WITH QUALIFIED PERSONNEL, AS OF APRIL 2021
Aircraft | Number of positions | Positions filled with qualified personnel
A-29 | 4 | 2
AC-208 | 7 | 2
C-208 | 5 | 2
C-130 | 7 | 4
Mi-17 | 6 | 3
MD-530 | 5 | 2
UH-60 | 8 | 3
Total | 42 | 18
[Report page 86.]

TABLE 2.12, FILL PERCENTAGE FOR QUALIFIED AAF MAINTAINERS REQUIRED AND CONTRACTED MAINTAINERS, DATA AS OF APRIL 2021
Aircraft | Maintainer Level 3 | Maintainer Level 2 | Maintainer Level 1 | Contracted Maintainers
Mi-17 | 765% | 375% | 566% | —
MD-530 | 93% | 61% | 109% | 106
UH-60 | 104% | 0% | 0% | 198
A-29 | 78% | 61% | 118% | 39
AC-208 | 233% | 120% | 125% | 41
C-208 | 261% | 154% | 290% | —
C-130 | 28% | 0% | 33% | 25
[Report page 88.]

Note: Data as of April 2021. Percentages are the percent of positions filled with the required number of qualified maintainers. Maintainer levels with percentages over 100% have an excess number of qualified maintainers versus the number required.

TAAC-Air assessed in January 2021 that without continued contractor support, none of the AAF’s airframes can be sustained as combat effective for more than a few months, depending on the stock of equipment parts in-country, the maintenance capability on each airframe, and when contractor support is withdrawn.

According to AAF data provided to TAAC-Air this quarter, the AAF is making progress filling its maintainer ranks with qualified maintainers at each of its three levels of certification (Level 3, basic maintenance duties, through Level 1, the most advanced maintenance duties). Table 2.12 shows that three of seven AAF airframes (C-208, AC-208, and Mi-17s) have enough qualified maintainers at all levels required to maintain their aircraft. The C-130 has the fewest personnel qualified in each maintenance level against its requirements (nine total qualified maintainers vs. 60 required). Even airframes that have the required number of qualified maintainers (like the AC-208 and the C-208), still use DOD contractors for support. According to TAAC-Air, these contractors provide continued logistics support, mentoring, on-the-job training, and supervision to build competency and experience for the AAF maintainers. They also help restore aircraft readiness when the aircraft fall below operational readiness requirements. [Report page 88.]

The 2021 High-Risk List section says Afghan security forces face critical capability gaps such as aircraft maintenance that require long-term international support. [Report page 14.]

AF3. Operation Freedom’s Sentinel Lead Inspector General Report to the United States Congress January 1, 2021–March 31, 2021, published May 18, 2021. Lead IG agencies, including the DoD Inspector General. URL in SOURCES.csv. Faithful selected excerpts, report pages 2-4 and 28-30.

The Afghan Air Force (AAF) lost three helicopters in crashes due to both enemy fire and pilot error this quarter. According to U.S. advisors, the AAF exceeded the planned utilization rate for all its aircraft types this quarter, leading to overlapping maintenance schedules, and resulting in fewer aircraft available on a given day. Aviation support contractors began to return to theater this quarter with the easing of some COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. However, these contractors will be required to withdraw along with U.S. military forces. Aviation advisors previously reported that the combat effectiveness of AAF aircraft cannot be sustained for more than a few months without contractor support. USFOR-A said that it is developing plans to provide remote contractor logistics support to Afghan aviation maintainers. [Report page 3.]

This quarter, the DoD continued to conduct most of its efforts to train, advise, and assist the Afghan security forces virtually due to the coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The DoD said it was planning ways to provide over-the-horizon support to the Afghan forces after the withdrawal is completed. [Report page 2.]

The report described the ANDSF as facing a deteriorating security situation and reported that Taliban fighters concentrated on controlling highways to limit the ANDSF’s ability to resupply its forces and isolate Afghan government forces at outposts and checkpoints. [Report page 2.]

As of March 31, 2021, the Afghan Air Force had 162 aircraft in inventory, of which 143 were usable. The report states that all AAF aircraft types exceeded planned utilization rates during the quarter, contributing to overlapping maintenance schedules and fewer available aircraft on a given day. [Report page 28.]